The Thaw After the Ice Age
The IPO market endured two dark years (2023-2024): rising rates, risk aversion, and plummeting valuations. In 2025, barely 90 IPOs in the US, versus 400+ in 2021. But 2026 marks a turning point: pipelines are filling, bankers are optimistic, and the first deals are coming out.
US IPOs 2021
400+
US IPOs 2025
~90
US IPOs 2026 (projected)
~180
Average IPO Return D+30
+8%
Hot Sectors
1. AI and Cloud Infrastructure
AI infrastructure startups (data labeling, MLOps, vector databases) are the most anticipated candidates. Investors are looking for the "next Datadog" — B2B SaaS companies with 80%+ growth metrics and a clear path to profitability.
2. Mature Fintech
After the 2022-2023 purge, surviving fintechs (profitable neobanks, embedded finance, payments) return with validated models. Stripe (private valuation $65B) remains the most anticipated deal of the decade.
3. AI Biotech
Biotechs using AI for drug discovery are in the pipeline. Multiples are high, but big pharma partnerships add credibility.
Attention
IPO golden rule: never buy on day one. Historically, IPOs that surge +30% on day 1 underperform the market by -5% over 12 months. The best entry point is 3-6 months post-IPO, when lock-up expires and insiders sell.
Key Takeaway
The IPO market is normalizing, not overheating. Valuations are more reasonable than 2021, and companies arrive with more mature models. This is a good sign for equity market health. For investors: be selective. Favor profitable or near-profitable IPOs with 40%+ growth and a SaaS business model. Avoid "concept only" deals with no revenue.
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