Oil Makes a Comeback
Brent hovers around $88-92 per barrel — a level many thought impossible after the US shale revolution. Yet three structural forces are pushing prices higher.
Brent Spot
$90
OPEC+ Production
-2.2 Mb/d
Global Demand
103.5 Mb/d
Spare Capacity
2.8 Mb/d
Three Bullish Forces
1. OPEC+ Discipline: Saudi Arabia succeeded where it had failed before — maintaining durable production cuts. The 2.2 million barrels/day removed from the market create a structural deficit.
2. Emerging Demand: India (+500k b/d in 2026), Southeast Asia and Africa more than offset the Chinese slowdown. Global demand hits a record 103.5 Mb/d.
3. Underinvestment: Oil majors cut 40% of capex since 2020 in the name of energy transition. Result: not enough new projects to replace natural decline in existing fields.
Oil at $90 — Winners vs Losers
Winners
- Saudi Arabia: budget balanced at $80, surplus at $90
- Oil Majors: TotalEnergies, Exxon, Chevron — record cash flows
- Norway: sovereign fund rising, strong krone
- Renewables: expensive oil makes solar/wind more competitive
Losers
- Airlines: jet fuel represents 30% of costs
- Road Transport: diesel price increases
- Consumers: +15% at the pump
- Importing Countries: India, Japan, Korea — trade deficit
Le pétrole cher est un transfert de richesse des importateurs vers les exportateurs.
Key Takeaway
Conseil
Oil at $90 isn''t a temporary spike — it''s the new floor as long as OPEC+ maintains discipline and underinvestment persists. Overweight European majors (TotalEnergies, Shell) offering 6-8% dividend yield + massive buybacks. Underweight airlines and transportation.
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